TL;DR

Graduate vacancies advertised on the jobs site Adzuna fell to 7,826 in September, 43% fewer than a year earlier and the lowest count since it started tracking them in 2016, This is Money reports. Adzuna’s figures do not say why. Other sources point to two causes: AI, which over half of the hiring managers surveyed by recruiter Reed say is cutting opportunities, and the rising cost of employing staff.

The figures

The average advertised graduate salary stayed at about £27,700, and Adzuna says the shortage of roles is making competition for the remaining ones fiercer. Across all jobs, openings fell 11.9% year on year to 728,037, leaving 2.33 jobseekers for each vacancy, the most intense competition in over two years.

By sector, logistics and warehouse listings dropped 23% and IT roles 11.1%, while trade and construction fell 5.8%. Healthcare was the exception, with more adverts for mental health practitioners and specialist nurses. By region, Scotland’s listings fell 27.2%, more than double the national rate, and only the South East grew, by 0.9%.

September was also the first month in which most job adverts on the site stated pay. Adzuna co-founder Andrew Hunter said the balance of power had “shifted further toward employers”, and noted that a government consultation on making salary disclosure mandatory closes within days.

Separating the causes

Not every explanation is about AI. The CBI says higher hiring costs are holding back opportunities for young people, and This is Money links those costs to minimum wage increases and the £25bn rise in employer national insurance. Reed’s survey and the IMF’s warning that AI is “a slow-moving tsunami” for jobs point the other way. Adzuna’s own data does not attribute the fall to either.

We covered employer views on this in our August report on entry-level jobs, and Lord Neuberger has now warned of a similar squeeze on junior lawyers.

Looking Forward

In our view, the graduate figure is the one to track, because entry-level roles are where AI substitution and cost pressure meet. A single month of advert data cannot separate the two, and adverts are not hires. But a 43% annual fall is large enough that employers, universities and policymakers will want to know how much of it is cyclical and how much reflects work that is no longer offered to new starters.