TL;DR

UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday 15 October, against the 0.1% fall that economists polled by Reuters had expected. The ONS names computer programming, consultancy and related activities as the largest contributor to three-month growth for the sixth month running, and economists quoted by Reuters read that as AI investment showing up in the output data. It comes two days after the IMF raised its UK forecast on the same reasoning.

The monthly figure follows growth of 0.4% in both June and July, with June revised up from the 0.3% first published. Output was 2.1% higher than in August 2025, a rate the ONS says was last exceeded in August 2022.

What the ONS data shows

The ONS bulletin says production rose 0.8% on the month, with manufacturing up 1.2%, while services were flat and construction slipped 0.2%. Across June to August the information and communication sector grew 2.8%, driven by a 5.0% rise in the programming and consultancy category. Measured against the same three months a year earlier, that category contributed 0.32 percentage points to GDP, more than any other industry. The ONS also notes that wholesaling of IT and communications equipment was the main driver of a monthly rise in wholesale trade after five consecutive falls, and says it coincides with the recent strength in programming.

Reuters reports the programming category grew 1.1% in August alone and is 13% larger than at the start of the year. Citing national accounts data, it puts the broader information and communications industry up 12% this year in the UK, while Germany managed 2% and France 0.2%.

How economists read it

“The sector breakdown suggests that AI is behind much of the upswing,” said Berenberg’s senior economist Andrew Wishart, who also noted that consumer spending had beaten expectations despite rising inflation. PwC’s Jake Finney called business investment, particularly in technology hardware, an important driver of the year’s unexpectedly strong growth. “The UK still lags the US in both the scale of that investment and the boost it provides to growth,” he said, adding that it remains ahead of many European peers.

Thomas Pugh of RSM UK argued the numbers point to “genuinely respectable growth this year”, and that current interest rates may be less restrictive than the Bank of England assumed. Reuters notes third-quarter growth now looks set to beat the Bank’s 0.4% forecast as policymakers consider raising rates in November. Chancellor John Healey called the figures “more proof of Britain’s resilience”.

Looking forward

The release lands beside the IMF’s decision this week to lift its 2026 UK forecast to 1.3%, which also pointed to AI investment. In our view the striking detail is concentration: one industry category has led three-month growth for half a year. That is good news for the software and data-centre supply chain, but it also means the growth story rests on investment flows that the IMF itself warns could reverse if AI valuations correct.