TL;DR: A National Bureau of Economic Research study surveying nearly 6,000 executives across the US, UK, Germany and Australia found that more than 80% of firms reported no impact from AI on employment or productivity over the past three years, despite widespread adoption and billions in investment.

The New Solow Paradox

The findings echo a pattern economists have seen before. In the 1980s, Nobel laureate Robert Solow observed that “you can see the computer age everywhere, except in the productivity statistics.” The same appears to be happening with AI. Around 70% of firms surveyed actively use AI, yet top executives spend only about 1.5 hours per week with the technology. A quarter report no personal AI use at all.

“AI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data,” Apollo Academy noted in a recent analysis. A separate NBER study examining Danish labour records found “precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours” from AI adoption.

The PwC 2026 Global CEO Survey reported similar results: only 12% of CEOs said AI had delivered both cost and revenue benefits, while 56% saw no significant financial benefit.

The Gap Between Tasks and Firms

There is a notable disconnect between individual and organisational results. Task-level studies show AI can boost individual worker productivity by 14% to 55%. But a reported 95% failure rate among enterprise AI initiatives may explain why those gains are not reaching company-wide metrics.

Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, a co-author of the study, has noted that major technologies typically take a decade or more to show real economic impact. “The Steam Engine, Electric Motor, Computer and Internet all had massive long-run effects but almost no impact in the first 5-years,” Bloom wrote.

Looking Forward

Despite the current data, executives still expect AI to boost productivity by 1.4% and increase output by 0.8% over the next three years — while reducing employment by 0.7%. For UK businesses, the research suggests patience may be more productive than panic: the technology’s long-term potential remains intact, but organisations expecting immediate returns from AI adoption are likely to be disappointed.