TL;DR

If all 23 AI data centres in Scotland’s planning system were approved, they would produce about 14 million tonnes of emissions a year from 2030 and become the country’s largest emitting sector, Friends of the Earth Scotland estimates. Over 2030 to 2045 that adds up to 208 million tonnes, or 51% of the 406 million tonnes Scotland’s carbon budgets allow from 2026. The National reported the figures on 9 November, as the COP31 climate talks open in Turkey.

Where the numbers come from

The campaign group first set out the estimate on 29 October, in evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Climate Action Committee, which is running an inquiry into the environmental effects of AI data centres. Its method is simple. It takes 9,100MW, the combined capacity of the 23 proposals as tracked by APRS (Action to Protect Rural Scotland), a charity, and applies the UK grid’s 2025 carbon intensity of 0.1769kg of CO2e per kWh.

For scale, the group says Scotland’s existing data centres total around 50MW, spread across small sites serving internet use and storage. The proposals would multiply demand 182-fold. Just two proposals have published environmental impact assessments, it says.

“Data centres risk torpedoing Scotland’s climate plans,” said the group’s senior campaigner, Kim Pratt. Kat Jones, director of APRS, said building every hyperscale site in the grid queue “would triple Scotland’s peak energy demand”.

Reading the estimate

In our view, the figure is best read as a ceiling rather than a forecast. By our arithmetic, the group’s 14.10 million tonnes is what 9,100MW produces if it draws full power every hour of the year at 2025 grid intensity, so any site running below capacity would emit less. Against that, the group argues that in the early years extra demand would most likely be met by more gas-fired power, including at Peterhead.

The estimate also assumes every proposal is approved. Meanwhile the developer of Lanarkshire’s AI growth zone has conceded that its Chapelhall site will be fully grid served rather than powered by dedicated renewables. In our view, that puts more weight on exactly the grid supply this estimate prices.

What it means

In our view, the estimate frames each data centre decision as a draw on a carbon budget fixed in law, and it lands days before a march against AI data centres planned in Edinburgh for 14 November. For developers seeking Scottish consents, it is an argument for publishing credible energy and emissions assessments early.